2021.12.01 12:45 Defiant-Branch4346 Secret People: Benoit Mandelbrot
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2021.12.01 12:45 Lorthdric Suggestions on durable, heavy duty tug toys? Something with a somewhat long cord/rope preferably
Hi all, I’m thinking of some things I can buy for my parent’s dog as potential Christmas gifts. He’s a very active mutt, they adopted him from a farm at a couple of months old, beagle and schnauzer mainly. His favorite things in the world are tug of war and using his teeth, and to that end he has destroyed many toys, most recently a custom heavy duty tug toy made from PVC and a bungee cord. The toy specifications I’m looking for are extremely strong so it won’t fray or snap, something easy for the human to hold on to because he’s quite strong, and preferably something with a somewhat longer rope as he can get a bit careless with his biting and I wanna keep my hand out of the way lol. Not a dog owner myself so I don’t know the best or most reliable place to look.
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2021.12.01 12:45 wanttoseensfwcontent Isnt it funny how
2021.12.01 12:45 lyvoo CCIP
Just a quick question. Have you got any plans to allow us to claim our rewards on different chains. For example my LpL are on L1 eth, but I don’t want to pay $200 to claim them. Could I claim them into my arbitrum wallet instead. Maybe we could have a drop down that allows us to choose a chain?
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2021.12.01 12:45 drivex_uaa Anyone purchased the Oled dock waiting for it to be shipped?
So I pre-ordered for the dock over a week ago and its being released on its own today from the official mynintendo store. I was billed today.
Anyone here made the same purchase for just the dock recently? And has your order shipped yet?
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2021.12.01 12:45 farklinkbot Boys abandoned with their brother's corpse in their apartment lived in a 'filthy, disgusting environment.' I'd think the corpse would have made that obvious
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2021.12.01 12:45 the_nitwit_reborn [New viewer theories] Who is the Dragon Reborn? - a Bayesian analysis - Episode 4 UPDATED
Hey everyone. Thanks for so much love for our first post. I think you convinced us that there's enough interest for us to keep going with this thread.
Just posting a one-off midweek update to factor-in a bunch of stuff that other viewers picked up on. We don't plan to do this every week - but you all showed us how much we missed, so we felt an update was in order before episode 5. We also wanted to make one clarification on how we would like everyone to participate in the thread.
Specifically, we especially want to solicit theories/ideas/observations from fellow new-viewers to provide a chance for new fans to speculate in an environment that's free from worry about spoilers (and of course help us with our predictions!).
As for book-readers, we've been getting a HUGE kick out of how much you're all enjoying this thread, so please keep visiting and commenting. However, please do also take care when pointing things out. Drawing attention to small things in the show that would be massively upweighted from the privileged perspective of a book reader will sway a Bayesian (especially if we know that it's from a book reader). Our biggest fear at this point is getting spoiled, and I don't think we have been at all yet. Plus we're blown away by the care everyone's showing to keep us spoiler-free. However we do really want to give prominence to other new viewers' observations and theories in this thread. I suspect this will also be the most fun part for book fans as well! With that out of the way, here are the updated results:
Who is the Dragon Reborn? - Episode 1-4 - UPDATED standings
Full evidence table here
Analysis Huge turnaround in this update thanks to lots of things everyone pointed out (for pretty much all the characters). Firstly, Logain is back in the running! Well, sort of. We decided we were too hasty to write him off, but he has basically just had all is power ripped out so he's sitting in last place with a measly 1% probability. Still, does his loss of power mean that he's cured of his madness? He could still be the Dragon!
Ok, turning to the real news. The biggest winner is Rand, who now storms into the lead with a 26% probability of being the Dragon (up from 19% in the previous update). This is thanks to a number of subtle things we overlooked first time round. Firstly his dad was suspiciously good with that sword (ex-warder??), and now that we've looked back, the sword itself is clearly a quest item (bird symbol). We confirmed that the sword Rand has in ep 3 is indeed the same one that Rand's dad used. Finally, Rand has red hair - which Tom says is rare outside the "Aiel waste", and that the "Aiel" are "honor-bound fighters". After reviewing all this evidence, this is clearly setting Rand up as a skilled fighter type character with likely mystery in his past.
My boy Perrin also took a solid ratings bump (17% to 23%), putting him in a close second place. This is largely because someone pointed out that he killed his wife, which paralleled the tragedy of the original Dragon (see first animated short). Plus we wondered whether Perrin might have been consumed by the male power madness in that scene when he killed his wife. He was definitely pretty unhinged in that scene. Finally, might be a bit of a stretch, but revisiting episode 2, we noticed that Perrin pointed out that there were no bugs or birds in Shadow City. Perhaps heightened senses as a result of his wolf connection??
Poor old Egwene took a massive hit (33% to 16%). This was down to 2 things. Firstly, other people gaining at her expense (most notably Rand, Perrin, and Nynaeve), but also due to a re-evaluation of her power rankings relative to Nynaeve and the Dragon. Specifically, Moiraine and Lan wondered whether Egwene and Logain were on the same level, but then Moiraine taunted Logain by saying that his power is just a trickle compared to the Dragon Reborn. And we're told that Moiraine can't tell an outright lie. Plus Logain (and Moiraine?) seemed pretty dumbstruck by Nynaeve's power at the end of episode 4. This means that the power ranking should look something like Dragon ≥ Nynaeve > Logain and Egwene. All of this means that Egwene's Dragon probability takes a hit, and Nynaeve's goes up.
As well as benefitting from a higher power rating, Nynaeve also benefits from added mystery around her backstory. We overlooked the fact that Moiraine says she's not from the 2 rivers, plus that she can (sort of) speak the Old Tongue. Lan translated her quote as being the last words that the King of Manetheren said to his wife - which suggests that Nynaeve might be descended from the royalty of Manetheren! An intriguing possibility, but not enough by itself to give Nynaeve a significant bump in our view. The quote could just have been passed down in Manetheren folklore.
Someone also pointed out that Nynaeve killed a Trolloc one-on-one (Rand and Perrin both had help), and she tracked Lan. These things definitely confirm her as a badass, but the Dragon? Still Nynaeve, gets a bump overall (6% to 11%) - both for her increased power ranking, and some mystery about her origin. However, not fitting the prophecy or having nightmares still hurts her probability.
Mat also takes a small hit. We were totally sold on the theory that the Fade was actually hiding from Mat! However, how much of that is due to the dagger (which is surely cursed/possessing Mat) versus Mat himself? We note that Lan was confident that the Trollocs wouldn't follow them into Shadow City, which means that maybe there's stuff in there that even Trollocs (and Fades?) are afraid of!
Could it be that the Dragon has both a light and dark side? Mat would fit the bill for this, and there's definitely a yin-yang thing going on (just look at the voting buttons on reddit!*). However, for us this only counts as speculation for now rather than Bayesian evidence. So given that a few other people got Dragon bumps, Mat and Egwene are the main losers in this update.
*this is naughty as we're not supposed to be using out of world evidence.
Finally, the Power Rangers theory got a lot of love in the comments - though none of this love seemed to be particularly evidence-based lol. In general this will be a hard theory to discriminate, as any evidence that contributes to any individual character can also be counted towards this hypothesis. The trick is to find evidence that actively supports/contradicts this hypothesis over any others, which is going to be tricky. The main thing this theory has got going for it atm is the number of 'parts'/complexity of the Dragon* (power, madness, wife-grief...). Let us know if you see anything that would specifically promote/discount this theory either way!
*I didn't realize, but the power rangers can actually combine to form the Mega Dragonzord lmao. Maybe this is enough to confirm the Power Rangers are indeed the Dragon Reborn.
2021.12.01 12:45 NickFisher777 Are chargeability metrics hurting the business and controlling?
Here’s my thoughts: If I finish client work fast(er) than expected - let’s say 4 hrs instead of 8 - and then do a training and bill this for 4 hrs, shouldn’t this be considered a good performance rather than missing chargeability? I mean sure you can always try to find extra projects or business development work to put on your timesheet, but I feel like I have a huge incentive to allocate trainings i complete to the project instead of Training time on the timesheet because of chargeability being measured. Not that I have personally done this, but the system is sort of created in this way. Assuming that people are doing this - wouldn’t this hurt our ability to do meaningful controlling of projects as well as discourage people to get their stuff done and learn a new skill?
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2021.12.01 12:45 pale_ass_teen WATERMARK YOUR MEMES
It is almost pointless to distribute DOBO memes without making the connection to the COIN, the DOBO trademark, and the DOGEBONK COMMUNITY so people can observe whatever that you’re advertising and ACT to ENGAGE with it.
Please upvote this super important message because it’s crucial to our GROWTH and VALUE.
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2021.12.01 12:45 Bobbathon Spotify wrapped is out y’all!!!
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2021.12.01 12:45 united-verdict-bot Unanimous "Not the A-hole" with 9 votes
2021.12.01 12:45 xFINISHxHIMx Hot Off The Press... Rakic vs Blachowicz Mar. 26
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2021.12.01 12:45 Bana_he-ne Ngl they had us in the first half
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2021.12.01 12:45 cookiethesnake first scape. in love with how it turned out! going to be doing a highly monitored fish in cycle for my little guy :) couldnt stand seeing him in that small tank anymore
2021.12.01 12:45 BagerCast Yujin is UNREAL!🔥️ 🥰
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2021.12.01 12:45 darthgary22 Saw a post talking about warlocks being hard to making look good, thought I’d make this
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2021.12.01 12:45 united-verdict-bot Unanimous "Not the A-hole" with 12 votes
2021.12.01 12:45 kapicar I'm in a 0,005% fans of Swans according to Spotify wrapped
2021.12.01 12:45 ihatechoosingnames Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker will not seek re-election in 2022
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2021.12.01 12:45 fppfle Can I prevent colleagues from booking last minute same-day meetings on my calendar?
2021.12.01 12:45 ndfwguy SCOTUS HEARINGS
2021.12.01 12:45 jjuustin LGBTI Acceptance by country in 2020
2021.12.01 12:45 TobiHovey Amber Group Leads $175M Series B Round in DEX Aggregator 1inch
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2021.12.01 12:45 corradococco Expressive Sounds in Bitwig 4.1 - Textures Part 1
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2021.12.01 12:45 Carnagekasady666666 Good morning 🙂
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